Editor's Note: As part of an expanded editorial approach, Claims is offering first-run, feature-length articles on our web site before they appear in our monthly print issue. These articles will be clearly marked and are intended to expand the editorial breadth of the magazine while at the same time delivering even more useful and educational insights to our readers. We hope you find this extended coverage helpful.

It is no secret that the Property Casualty (P&C) Industry has powerful ties to the economy, and changes in the general health of the economy reverberate throughout the P&C industry--frequently causing us to look to past cycles in an attempt to predict the future. In 2008, a host of industry insiders are insinuating that changes in today's general economy are echoing many of the same scenarios that played out in the 1970s, like extreme spikes in gas prices similar to those experienced during the 1973-74 oil crisis. Several other economic indicators are also now mirroring what happened in the 1970's, so the question is; will history repeat itself?

The personal auto claims frequency fell in 1973-1974 because gas prices spiked due to the reduced availability, which forced people to drive less and consequently reduced severity. In fact, ISO Fast Track data for 1973/74 shows that personal auto claim frequency for collision fell by 7.7 percent, property damage liability fell by 9.5 percent, and bodily injury coverages fell by 13.3 percent. However, after the gas shortage was over and prices retreated from their peak, frequency gradually rose to pre-crisis levels. Industry experts are eagerly pointing to this trend as evidence to predict that the industry will see a similar slow down, arguing that the factors are the same as they were in 1973-1974. But are they?