While 68 percent of risk managers are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in American International Group's financial strength following the federal bailout of its corporate parent, 71 percent will consider alternatives to AIG at renewal, an Advisen survey shows.

The survey was conducted from Sept. 23-25 with 1,000 respondents, 84 percent of whom have insurance decision-making authority for their companies--of which 76 percent identified themselves as risk managers, Advisen said.

Written comments included in the study indicated that insurance buyers generally believe AIG's insurance entities have been protected by insurance regulations from the parent company's financial crisis.

According to the survey, less than 8 percent of all survey respondents, and only about 6 percent of respondents from companies insured by AIG, said they are "very concerned" about the financial condition of the AIG insurance companies.

About 68 percent said they are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in the companies' financial strength. Some respondents are concerned that AIG has suffered long-lasting damage to its reputation, but according to written comments, many policyholders understand that the insurance companies are safeguarded by insurance company solvency regulations.

About 5 percent of respondents said they will consider replacing AIG before their current policy period expires. But two-thirds of respondents said they will consider alternatives to AIG at renewal time for their policies.

Although nearly 70 percent of respondents said they are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in the financial strength of the AIG insurance subsidiaries, 52 percent of AIG policyholders gave "Uncertainty over financial stability" as a reason they are considering replacing AIG.

Based on written comments, other areas of concern include uncertainty about the future ownership of the insurance companies and the possibility that AIG insurance companies will lose key individuals or underwriting teams during the current turmoil.

Survey respondents were generally complimentary about how their brokers have handled the crisis. Brokers have contacted more than 95 percent of AIG policyholders since Sept. 15.

About 70 percent of the brokers either have not made any specific recommendations as to actions, or have counseled their clients to not take any action at the present. Only two out of 1,000 respondents said their broker advised them to replace AIG, even if at a higher premium.

The insurance market appears to be responding to the AIG crisis in a calm and rational manner. The AIG insurance entities are vulnerable to competition, and responses to the survey strongly suggest they will experience erosion in market share in the short run, according to Advisen.

The study found that there likely will not be a stampede of AIG policyholders into the market looking for replacement coverage at any cost.

Some buyers voiced concern that the companies could be damaged by the loss of too many policyholders, defections of key personnel, or by being sold to lower-rated companies.

There is, however, a surprisingly deep reservoir of good will toward AIG, Advisen said--or at least recognition that the company plays a number of important roles in the insurance market. Commercial insurance buyers seem inclined to support the company to the degree that cautious and prudent behavior permits.

Most respondents said that as a result of AIG's problems, they believe the current soft market will bottom out and stabilize, or will reverse direction. Fewer than 10 percent believe declining rate conditions will intensify.

Based in part on survey responses, however, it seems likely that AIG will be forced to slash premiums to retain business, which could set off a pricing war throughout the commercial insurance sector.

Since most AIG policyholders are "somewhat confident" or "very confident" in the insurer's financial security, many are likely to be won back by lower premiums. And so while AIG's competitors may be able to increase their market share at AIG's expense, there will be a cost to winning the business, according to Advisen.

Survey respondents strongly support the decision by the U.S. government to loan AIG $85 billion. In response to the question, "Do you support or oppose the announced decision by the Fed to loan AIG $85 billion?" about 70 percent answered "Support," with the remaining respondents equally split between "Oppose" and "No opinion."

Advisen said that some respondents wrote in comments that while they disapproved of government bailouts on principle, they believed the AIG loan was necessary for the health of the economy and the insurance industry. Several respondents suggested the loan was a good deal for taxpayers, since it would likely return a profit.

Special Reports /

Buyers 'Confident' About AIG--For Now: Survey

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