NEW YORK–Seven years after 9/11 the threat of a terrorist attack remains a real possibility as Jihadist terror units regroup, expand and continue to plan new ways of attacking Western targets, terrorism experts said.

Four experts in the field gave that assessment in speaking at the annual terrorism seminar sponsored by Risk Management Solutions, the Newark, Calif.-based catastrophe modeling firm.

In an interview with National Underwriter, Andrew Coburn, vice president of catastrophe research and director of terrorism research for RMS, explained that while the public's view of terrorism in the United States may have diminished, the threat remains.

“The threat of terrorism has not gone away,” he said.

Supporting that view were Rohan Gunaratna, director, international center for political violence and terrorism research, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, and Bruce Hoffman, professor of security studies at the school of foreign service at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

Mr. Gunaratna explained that since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, instead of al Qaida diminishing as a movement it has only grown to include a broader audience of followers. The war in Iraq, he said, has inflamed many into believing that attacks upon Western interests are necessary.

Al Qaida, he noted, has regrouped and re-established itself in the border states of Pakistan. There, it has rebuilt its abilities to train and disseminate propaganda about itself, said Mr. Gunaratna. The organization has also developed a leadership structure that can quickly replace those who are captured or killed, he noted.

Mr. Hoffman called talk of al Qaida's demise “premature and exaggerated,” adding that it is “far too soon to say al Qaida is finished.”

Contrary to popular belief, while many plots have been uncovered and stopped, it is not a sign of celebration, but a warning that the organization is still seeking to perpetrate another successful attack, said Mr. Hoffman.

Turning to the insurers, Gordon Woo, catastrophe risk consultant for RMS and chief architect for the RMS terrorism model, said insurers need to take the long view of terrorism risk. He cited the United Kingdom's battle with the Irish Republican Army which lasted 30 years.

Discussing terrorism modeling with NU, Mr. Coburn explained that over the past seven years the models have developed more validity through the accumulation of evidence.

The models, today, show greater probability of events in locations and the extent of damage that can be inflicted from a terror event. The models, he pointed out, do not predict events but allow insurers to understand their exposures and control those risks.

Special Reports /

Threat Of Terrorism Seen Unabated

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