Those who assess catastrophe risks for insurance purposes are keeping an eye on the latest California wildfires but at this point do not rate them as insured loss catastrophes.

Scott Stransky, research analyst at AIR Worldwide, said the "vast majority" of California's current fires are burning in the northern part of the state, and he said only a "small percentage of these fires will be loss-causing."

At the moment, Mr. Stransky said, the fires threaten about 10,500 homes and more than 400 commercial properties.

He characterized the "Basin Fire" in Big Sur, Calif., as one of the worst, explaining that it is only 11 percent contained and has, so far, destroyed over 72,000 acres.

According to U.S. Forest Service statistics, the Basin Fire has destroyed 23 residencies and 23 outbuildings.

Mr. Stransky also noted that no rain is expected for the area in the near future, which will complicate firefighters' efforts to fight the wildfires. In fact, news reports today indicate that temperatures will be much warmer than they have been.

Gary Kerney, assistant vice president of ISO's Property Claim Services, said via e-mail, "PCS continues to monitor the fires and the properties affected by each fire. Staff is aware that some properties are threatened by several of the fires. At this time, there are no indications that any fire has caused insured property damage that requires a catastrophe declaration."

He added, "The PCS staff is communicating with insurers so that if the current situation worsens, staff will be prepared to determine the need to assign a catastrophe serial number."

In general, Mr. Stransky said California "typically has 5,000 to 10,000 fires per year, with about 40 of them being loss-causing. So far, this year's activity is within these bounds." He added that, so far, over 550,000 acres have been burned in the recent fires.

Mr. Stransky also said that "dry" lightning has ignited most of the 1,781 simultaneous fires since June 20 in California, and he called that "unusual." He said, "Lightning strikes usually account for only about 10 percent of fire ignitions, so this is unusual. Fires are commonly started by equipment use, vehicles and, sadly, arson."

He also said that this past spring was the driest on record "for much of northern California."

Also causing problems is the Gap Fire, a large and fast-moving blazein the Los Padres National Forest.

According to AIR Worldwide, the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm, the Gap Fire expanded dramatically between July 1, and July 2, growing from 200 acres to more than 2,400.

By Sunday, it had spread across 9,924 acres of California land and was only 30 percent contained. It continues to threaten some 2,800 residences in the coastal city of Goleta, northwest of Santa Barbara.

"The Gap Fire has been fanned by so-called "Sundowner" winds--Santa Barbara's equivalent of the Santa Ana winds," said Scott Stransky, research analyst at AIR. "This type of Foehn wind is much more common in the fall and winter, but it is not out of the ordinary to see it fuel fires in the summer months."

Special Reports /

No Significant Insured Losses From Calif. Wildfires, Experts Say

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