DALLAS--An insurance consultant warned an industry conference here that overall growth and profitability of the property-casualty industry may suffer due to the combined effects of a soft market, the credit crunch and an economic downturn.

"I think we're in for some challenging times ahead," commented Rebecca Amoroso, vice chairperson and U.S. insurance industry leader at Deloitte LLP in a talk during the Inland Marine Underwriters Association's 75th Annual Conference.

Net written premium spiked during the hard market that occurred in the wake of 9/11, Ms. Amoroso said, but with the industry now in the midst of a soft market, she projected that 2008 will see the slowest level of growth for the industry since the late 1990s.

Looking forward, Ms. Amoroso cited additional economic factors that may hurt insurers' profitability. "I don't think we can ignore what is happening in the economy and the implications that it can and will have on our industry," she said.

She called the credit crunch and subprime mortgage defaults the most significant economic events to hit in some time. Some in the p-c industry will experience write-downs in some assets, and there will also be additional exposure to potential losses for those who write directors and officers liability and errors and omissions coverages, said Ms. Amoroso.

The stock market slump and lower interest rates are putting the squeeze on insurers, Ms. Amoroso said, as companies are seeing decreased capital gains and lower investment income.

Fears of an economic slowdown and a possible recession will mean slower growth for the industry and for insurers' clients, Ms. Amoroso said. Additionally, she noted that some lines, such as workers' compensation, will experience increased frequency.

Ms. Amoroso said the big question looking forward will be how the industry will try to grow in the current market while maintaining underwriting discipline.

"I constantly hear from our clients that they're going to sacrifice growth for profitability," she said. "But unfortunately, I've heard that story before, so the truth will come out in the numbers. The numbers don't lie."

On the positive side, Ms. Amoroso said that while most years have seen underwriting losses for p-c insurers, 2006 and 2007 saw record gains. This was due in part to a lack of major catastrophe events, but also to favorable reserve development related to prior years.

Surplus has been growing, and was strong as of 2007. "We are in very good shape as an industry," Ms. Amoroso said.

Speaking to trends seen in the industry, Ms. Amoroso said that mergers and acquisitions activity has been slow in recent years and has been trending downward since 2001. In response to the slow growth in this area, companies have been looking to reduce costs by spending more on technology to streamline operations, scrutinizing claims and looking for process enhancements when dealing with claims, and even expressing some interest in outsourcing and locating offshore.

There are signs that merger and acquisition activity may pick up again with a decrease in insurance company valuations making such deals look more attractive, she noted. Additionally, she mentioned that the level of surplus among insurers could spark some transactions, as well as the difficulty companies will have to grow organically in the midst of the soft market.

Some other issues that have the attention of insurers, Ms. Amoroso said, are compliance with possible regulatory changes, including principle-based reserving and an optional federal charter; continued effective implementation of enterprise risk management; and issues and opportunities regarding global climate change.

Special Reports /

Tough Times For P-C Insurers Loom, Says Deloitte

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