Increased economic damages from hurricanes in the United States are due to the country's growing population and wealth centered on coastlines, not to any spike in the number or intensity of hurricanes, according to new research by experts at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Natural Hazards Review paper, “Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900-2005,” contradicts some claims that climate change, increasing the intensity and volume of storms, is increasing losses.

“There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts,” said Chris Landsea, one of the researchers and the science and operations officer at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami.

What could be of more concern to the insurance industry is the paper's observation that if more people continue to move to the hurricane-prone coastline, future economic hurricane losses may be far greater than previously thought.

The researchers conclude that potential damage from storms–currently about $10 billion yearly–is growing at a rate that may place severe burdens on exposed communities, and that avoiding huge losses will require a change in the rate of population growth in coastal areas, major improvements in construction standards, or other mitigation actions.

The results illustrate the effects of the tremendous pace of growth in vulnerable hurricane areas, NOAA said. According to the report, if the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane were to hit today, the study estimated it would cause the largest losses at $140-to-$157 billion, with Hurricane Katrina second on the list at $81 billion.

The findings were disclosed in a newly published paper in the Natural Hazards Review. Researchers said they had found that economic damage from hurricanes in the United States has been doubling every 10 to 15 years.

“We found that although some decades were quieter and less damaging in the U.S. and others had more land-falling hurricanes and more damage, the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time,” said Mr. Landsea in a statement.

“Unless action is taken to address the growing concentration of people and property in coastal hurricane areas, the damage will increase by a great deal as more people and infrastructure inhabit these coastal locations,” he continued.

The paper was written by Mr. Landsea; Roger A. Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado; Joel Gratz from ICAT Managers Inc.; Douglas Collins from Tillinghast-Towers Perrin; Mark A. Saunders from the University College London; and Rade Musulin from Aon Re Australia.

Special Reports /

NOAA Says Hurricanes Not Causing Increased Losses

Related Stories

Recommended For You