Could Sen. John McCain's opposition to a national catastrophe fund to back up state property insurance facilities cost him the White House? Perhaps, if enough Floridians allow the Arizona Republican's position to swing their vote to a more supportive Democratic candidate.

In a close national race, Florida will be a crucial state. It certainly made the difference in 2000, and could do so again in 2008--especially if even a mild hurricane threatens Florida before Election Day to remind Sunshine State residents of what's at stake.

In last month's make-or-break primary, Rudy Giuliani lost despite his fervent support for a national cat fund. In the end, the state's powerhouse governor, Charlie Crist, delivered the death blow to his campaign by endorsing Sen. McCain, who voiced vague support for a regional solution.

Both Democratic candidates left standing--Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama--have pledged to back the national cat fund concept. There is no doubt that under a Democratic administration, a national cat fund would have a terrific chance of becoming a reality, as the Dems look to lock up Florida for the long term.

Chuck Chamness, president and CEO of the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, which opposes a federal cat fund, addressed this issue eloquently in his Feb. 5 "NAMIC Advocacy" e-letter on "Principles and Presidential Politics." He rightfully praised Sen. McCain for not pandering to Floridians, instead refusing to go along with a cat fund concept he does not believe in.

"What did this primary teach us?" he wrote. "One lesson is about politicians and principles. Sen. McCain resisted the temptation to 'go wobbly,' as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher used to say, on his view that the Nat Cat plan pushed by [Gov.] Crist is a bad idea. He stuck to his principles in spite of the importance of the homeowners' insurance issue in Florida and the significant role Florida's primary played in his quest to become president. This is a good sign."

He added that the governor's endorsement of Sen. McCain, despite the candidate's rejection of a bill desperately sought by most Floridians, "also speaks to the principles of Gov. Crist, who, with his counterparts in the Florida Democratic Party, engineered the early primary so they could leverage promises of Nat Cat assistance from presidential candidates."

I actually think Gov. Crist's 11th-hour endorsement was more a case of jumping on the front-runner's bandwagon than a principled move. I also think that while his cat fund opposition did not cost Sen. McCain politically in his party's primary, it could derail the "Straight-Talking Express" come November.

Mr. Chamness cited the turbulence ahead with his observation that Gov. Crist "now faces criticism from Democrats in Florida for endorsing John McCain on the eve of his likely win. As the Florida Democratic Party spokesman said to the Palm Beach Post: 'This is a slap in the face to every Floridian. Of all the candidates in the race, Charlie Crist picks the one who ridicules the proposed national catastrophic fund that would reduce insurance rates for all Floridians.'"

They say that what goes around comes around. Sen. McCain pulled off perhaps his most important primary victory in Florida, yet his stand on the cat fund could come back to haunt him in November.

Will enough Floridians who fear hurricanes more than terrorists cross over and vote for the Democrat who promises that under his (or her) administration, Uncle Sam will have their backs? Stay tuned.

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