When push comes to shove this November, could Sen. John McCain's opposition to the creation of a national catastrophe fund to back up state property insurance facilities cost him the White House? I believe it could, if enough Floridians care enough to let the Arizona Republican's position swing their vote to a more supportive Democratic candidate.

Think about it for a moment. In a close race, Florida will certainly be a crucial state. It certainly made the difference in 2000 and could do so again in 2008, especially if even a mild hurricane threatens Florida before Election Day to remind Sunshine State residents of what's at stake.

During last month's primary, Rudy Giuliani was bitterly disappointed that his fervent support for a national cat fund got him nowhere with either the electorate, nor the state's powerhouse governor, who delivered the death blow to his campaign by endorsing Sen. McCain.

Thus, amazingly, McCain won Florida in spite of his outspoken dismissal of the cat fund concept, instead suggesting vague support for a regional solution of some sort, while pledging to restore FEMA's effectiveness in disaster recovery.

Both Democratic candidates left standing–Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama–have pledged their strong support for the national cat fund concept. There is no doubt that under a Democratic administration, a national cat fund of some sort would have a terrific chance of becoming a reality, as the Dems look to lock up Florida politically for the long-term.

Chuck Chamness, president and CEO of the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, which opposes a federal cat fund, addressed this issue eloquently in his Feb. 5 “NAMIC Advocacy” E-Letter on “Principles and Presidential Politics.”

Chuck rightfully praised McCain for not pandering to Floridians by backing a cat fund concept he does not believe in.

“What did this primary teach us?” Chuck wrote. “One lesson is about politicians and principles. Sen. McCain resisted the temptation to 'go wobbly,' as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher used to say, on his view that the Nat Cat plan pushed by Crist is a bad idea. He stuck to his principles in spite of the importance of the homeowners insurance issue in Florida and the significant role Floridas primary played in his quest to become president. This is a good sign.”

He added that the governor's endorsement of McCain, in spite of the senator's rejection of a bill near and dear to the hearts of many Floridians, “also speaks to the principles of Gov. Crist, who, with his counterparts in the Florida Democratic Party, engineered the early primary so they could leverage promises of Nat Cat assistance from presidential candidates.”

I actually think Gov. Crist's 11th-hour endorsement was more a case of jumping on the bandwagon of the likely winner. I also think that while his cat fund opposition did not cost McCain politically in his own party's primary, it could derail the “Straight-Talkin' Express” come November.

Chuck Chamness hit the nail on the head with his observation that Gov. Crist “now faces criticism from Democrats in Florida for endorsing John McCain on the eve of his likely win. As the Florida Democratic Party spokesman said to the Palm Beach Post: 'This is a slap in the face to every Floridian. Of all the candidates in the race, Charlie Crist picks the one who ridicules the proposed national catastrophic fund that would reduce insurance rates for all Floridians.'”

They say what goes around, comes around. Sen. McCain pulled off perhaps his most important primary victory in Florida, yet his stand on the cat fund could come back to haunt him in November if enough Floridians who fear hurricanes more than terrorists cross over and vote for the Democrat who promises that under his (or her) administration, Uncle Sam will have their back.

What do you folks think?

Special Reports /

Could Cat Fund Opposition Cost McCain The Election?

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