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Back on Jan. 1, I peered into my crystal ball for the likely Top-10 Property-Casualty Insurance Stories of 2007. Before revealing my actual Top-10 later this week, click on to see how my predictions panned out and to add some comments of your own on the year that was.


So what were my predictions a year ago for the likely Top 10 Stories of 2007? And are my fortune-telling powers when it comes to insurance any better than they are for baseball. (If you recall, I picked my Mets to beat the Red Sox in the World Series. Ah, well, at least I got that prediction partly right, with Boston making the series!)

Here goes:

–Top Story #1: TRIA Renewed!
I thought this was a no-brainer, but once again renewal of the federal terrorism reinsurance program went down to the wire. Still, the industry and risk managers have to be happy that in the end, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act was renewed for seven years, and not the three-year extension I predicted.

–Top Story #2: Look Out Below On Prices!
I nailed this one! I expected an accelerating soft market in most lines, but said the bottom would not drop out yet. Bingo! Give credit to underwriters for keeping the market rational. I warned, however, that all bets are off for 2008 if carriers enjoyed another cat-free year–which they did.

–Top Story #3: Flood Exclusion Springs A Leak!
Turns out I was overly alarmed about this threat, as insurers won almost all their court battles over flood damage claims. Maybe judicial activism is dead after all. Meanwhile, efforts to force homeowners carriers selling policies for the National Flood Insurance Program to give up their anti-concurrent-causation clause failed.

–Top Story #4: Greenberg Is The Comeback Kid!
While AIGs former top dog, Maurice Greenberg, did make his triumphant return to the podium, speaking at a few industry meetings, his continuing legal problems over alleged balance sheet manipulation via questionable finite re deals left him with little to say beyond the wonders of the burgeoning Chinese market. I miss the normally outspoken Hank, who, as journalists like to say, used to give good quote before being muzzled by his lawyers.

–Top Story #5: Gov. Spitzer Takes Aim At Insurers!
I predicted the industrys nemesis as state attorney general and his new superintendentformer Willis general counsel, Eric Dinallo–would pleasantly surprise, and was right on target. Outside of possibly mandating fee disclosure for all producers next year, the business has little to complain about and much to praise.

–Top Story #6: Lloyds Goes Electronic!
I was sure the old coffeehouse would go all Starbucks on us and test virtual placements over the Web, but as it turned out, while making progress, the paper-choked market has yet to even process all new claims electronically, let alone trade exposures online. Still, the outlook for a more efficient, high-tech market is bullish.

–Top Story #7: Collateral Re Rules Change At Last!
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners continued its snails pace debating a more reasonable and rational regulation of foreign reinsurers, but could not pull the trigger on a new model law. Now that both New York and Florida have gone rogue by proposing their own criteria, the NAIC had better get its act together before the market is thrown into total chaos.

–Top Story #8: Uncle Sam Dips Toe Into Insurance Regulation!
I was sure Congress would pass federal standards on surplus lines and reinsurance, while letting states do all the dirty work, but Washington is locked in such gridlock, the bill never really had a chance.

–Top Story #9: Bermuda Gives Birth To More Billion-Dollar Babies!
The soft market discouraged new entries and prompted many relative newborns to regurgitate excess cash to shareholders.

–Top Story #10: National Cat Fund Goes Nowhere!
As I expected, there was lots of talk but little action in Congress. With no major catastrophe to force the issue, and with the White House firmly against meddling in the private market, thats not likely to change.

Check out my blog on Friday to see what actually turned out to be (in my subjective view) the Top 10 Stories Of 2007. Then if you are really bold, check back on Jan. 4 for my 2008 Top-10 predictions!!!

Feel free to comment below!

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