Falling interest rates and stalled premium growth mean the best returns on equity the property-casualty insurance industry can hope for in coming years will be in the high-single-digits, according to the president of the Insurance Information Institute, Robert P. Hartwig.

"Interest rates are lower than they were a decade ago. They're falling, and they're going to fall again," Mr. Hartwig said, noting that volatile stock market returns add to a bleak investment picture that has so far kept insurers focused on maintaining good underwriting results.

Addressing the Casualty Actuaries of Greater New York, Mr. Hartwig said the industry is expected to earn roughly $60 billion from its investment portfolio in 2007--including interest on bonds, stock dividends as well as realized and unrealized capital gains. This figure is no better than it was a decade ago, he noted, even though invested assets have grown in the intervening years.

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