If a mutated version of bird flu sparks a 1918-level pandemic, there could be 40 million workers affected in the United States, 900,000 of whom could die, a modeling expert is warning.

That grim forecast comes from Peter Ulrich, Risk Management Solutions senior vice president for model management, who presented his findings Friday to the National Council on Compensation Insurance annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

While conventional wisdom holds that flu illness and death would not be covered by workers' compensation, if workers' comp did cover all workers, the potential loss could hit $400 billion, according to RMS models.

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