If a mutated version of bird flu sparks a 1918-level pandemic, there could be 40 million workers affected in the United States, 900,000 of whom could die, a modeling expert is warning.

That grim forecast comes from Peter Ulrich, Risk Management Solutions senior vice president for model management, who presented his findings Friday to the National Council on Compensation Insurance annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

While conventional wisdom holds that flu illness and death would not be covered by workers' compensation, if workers' comp did cover all workers, the potential loss could hit $400 billion, according to RMS models.

Mr. Ulrich said in an interview today that with 40 million workers hit by the flu, "some people are going to file claims," and just as Hurricane Katrina produced an avalanche of litigation, a flu outbreak would likely have the same outcome because "people will look for deep pockets." In addition, he said, some occupations, such as teachers and healthcare workers, may have a case to argue that they should have comp coverage for injuries resulting from workplace exposure. Even if claims are not upheld, it could result in significant legal defense costs for insurers, said Mr. Ulrich.

An RMS scenario for modeling worker pandemic casualties foresees 34.6 million people needing medical care, 4 million requiring hospitalization, 400,000 needing critical care and 900,000 dying.

At this point, Mr. Ulrich said, the chance of a 250-year pandemic occurring, like the one he modeled, is about three or four percent, but "the more people who get bird flu, the greater the chance of it happening."

So far, according to Mr. Ulrich, there have been 288 identified cases of H5N1 avian flu, which has resulted in 170 deaths worldwide.

While the illness is currently not transmittable between humans, he explained the concern is that it will mutate when a patient with a seasonal flu contracts bird flu at the same time and the two strains undergo what is called reassortment. Then, "you get a new, mutated transmittable flu."

The 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed 700,000 persons in the U.S. when it hit young adults, set off a fatal immune response system reaction know as a Cytokine Storm within their immune response systems, he said.

Because a Cytokine Storm reaction is more likely in severe pandemics, such events cause disproportionately high losses to the working population, Mr. Ulrich said.

Business planning for a pandemic, according to Mr. Ulrich, should involve duplication of staffing and training for critical operations, lower contact work environment practices, working from home, pre-emptive office closures, minimization of travel, minimization of customer interaction and staff health monitoring.

Mr. Ulrich, who lives in California and is a frequent flier, said that flu danger keeps him awake more than fears of earthquake or terrorism. He explained that with a quake or terror event, the government can respond with resources, but when the entire nation is under attack from flu, "how does the government respond?... Who is going to be out there with aid and support?"

Once such a virus is isolated, he noted, it will take four or five months to develop a vaccine.

Special Reports /

A Pandemic Could = $400B Comp Claim, Modeler Says

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