ISLE OF PALMS, S.C.--A government study has found a need for better methods of predicting storm surge damage to protect against weather catastrophes, a federal official told an underwriters group.

Stephen Cauffman, with the National Institute of Standards and Technology, made his comments to the Inland Marine Underwriters Association's annual meeting here in the course of outlining the recommendations of a U.S. Commerce Dept. group.

Mr. Cauffman is leader of the Structures Group in the materials and construction research division of the Building and Fire Research Laboratory.

The study unit he took part in was formed to make findings after the record damage and losses inflicted by the 2005 storm season.

Mr. Cauffman said that a better prediction of storm surge heights will help officials determine what building standards should be enforced for any particular site.

As leader of Structures Group of the Materials and Construction Research Division, Mr. Cauffman led NIST's reconnaissance of damage following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita--a response that included 26 experts from federal agencies, the private sector and academia.

"What we will do is look at a variety of storms, different approach angles, wind speeds so we have a database. We are working now with about 10,000 storms for a particular area so we can develop the methodology to better predict storm surge," he told the IMUA annual meeting.

The Saffir-Simpson scale that gauges size of hurricanes has a side measure of storm surge, but it is not used in predictive modeling at the present, he said.

"We already have standards for design to deal with this, and we just have to use them properly," Mr. Cauffman added.

For example, if the new data indicates that an eight-foot storm surge is likely where before it was set for five, then you will want to elevate your structure even more," he said.

The project is being coordinated with the new flood mapping project being undertaken by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, he explained.

Among the lessons learned by the NIST investigators, he related, is that certain portable classrooms in Port Arthur, Texas, survived the floods unscathed as opposed to other mobile structures.

"If we can just look at the design from these classrooms and see what made them so strong, we can apply that to mobile home codes throughout the states," Mr. Cauffman said.

Special Reports /

Storm Surge Data Models Needed, Says U.S. Official

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