There is no truth to the rumor that I was approached about doing a remake of the movie “Groundhog Day,” only with an insurance theme this time–the tragic tale of a poor business journalist (yours truly) doomed to spend the rest of eternity watching the industry fall victim to the same hard market/soft market cycle time and time again.
While analysts queried by the Insurance Information Institute for its annual “Groundhog Day” forecast warn of a softening market for as far as the eye can see, we may very well be witnessing the birth of a new era in the property-casualty industry–the profitable downcycle!
Yes, I realize our industry groundhogs, on average, expect sluggish premium growth of just 1.8 percent this year–the third-slowest growth rate since 1998, and nearly half the already anemic gains anticipated when all the numbers are added up for 2006. And although it's way to early to do anything but guess, those queried warn of a soft market right through 2008, with premiums next year rising just 1.9 percent.
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