AIR Worldwide, which estimated insured losses from Winter Storm Kyrill of more than $5 billion, said today that Germany might account for half the insured destruction.

The Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm said that a survey team dispatched to areas affected by the storm found that damage levels to individual properties in Germany were generally low, but the frequency of damage was high and geographically widespread.

In total, insured losses will likely be at least 2 billion euros, or nearly $2.6 billion.

Last week, AIR put its estimate of the two-day storm that struck Europe with hurricane-force winds at between 4 billion euros and 8 billion euros, or $5.2 billion-to-$10.4 billion.

"The primary damage has been to roofs," Y?rn Tatge, a managing director based in Munich, said in a statement. "In hard hit areas, we estimate that as many as two in 10 houses are missing roof shingles, which in this region are typically of clay or slate."

He continued: "While the damage is generally minor, the cost of repair is not insignificant. Also, insurance deductibles are quite low here, or even zero, so homeowners are unlikely to make repairs themselves."

Although Kyrill's wind speeds were not as high as the 1999 storm Lothar or the 1990 storm Daria, Kyrill was the largest extratropical cyclone to affect Europe in recent memory, AIR said.

AIR said that while wind damage to roofs was the predominant pattern, more significant damage from trees falling onto homes was also observed.

Commercial structures weathered the storm better than residential structures, AIR surveyors reported. The team observed instances of severe damage to flat sheet metal roofs of low-rise commercial structures, but well-engineered commercial buildings seem to have survived largely unscathed.

"What will drive the losses from this storm is the sheer number of claims," said Mr. Tatge, adding that losses could well exceed the 2 billion euros estimate, since there are reports of more severe damage in the eastern part of the country, where structures may have been less well-maintained.

Special Reports /

Kyrill Germany Losses Could Top $2.5B: AIR

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