Nearly two years after a scandal over commission kickbacks, the world's three major brokers are still recovering from the loss of contingent commissions, industry analysts with Fitch Ratings said.

In a review of the U.S. insurance brokerage industry, James Auden, an analyst with Fitch in Chicago, said the reduction in one time charges, primarily related to the fee investigation, and reduction in expenses should help brokers improve their net earnings in 2007.

However, he said, brokers will still face challenges in continued organic growth at past-year level in the face of a continued soft market that will affect commissions and revenues.

The overall outlook for brokers, said Mr. Auden, is stable for the broker segment Fitch reviews. Investigations into contingent commission wrongdoing appear to be ending, and those brokers who are no longer taking contingent commissions are adapting.

Fitch has created an index of eight publicly traded brokers. Median revenue growth was only 6 percent for those brokers in 2006, but median organic growth was 4 percent, up 1 percent from the same period last year. Marsh was the only one studied to report negative growth.

In discussions of the three top brokers–Marsh, Aon and Willis–both Aon and Willis were given positive marks, while Marsh was seen as still facing challenges and having not yet proven it has recovered from the loss of contingent commissions.

In order to settle allegations of wrongdoing by then New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the three brokers agreed to stop taking contingent commissions in 2004. Many other brokers still receive contingent commissions, something that is viewed as an economic advantage by them, while Marsh, Aon and Willis must rely on straight commissions from carriers or fees from clients.

Arthur J. Gallagher, regarded as the fourth largest broker in the world, also stopped taking contingent commissions as part of an agreement to settle allegations of wrongdoing. The firm was not part of this teleconference review.

Greg Dickerson, an analyst with Fitch in New York, said Marsh has not demonstrated that it has recovered financially from the scandal, which is why it has a negative rating outlook, with a “triple-B” rating.

“Although Marsh has maintained its leading global market share, the company's operating performance, while improving, continues to lag its closest competitors,” said Mr. Dickerson.

Marsh is a subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan, which also owns the investment firm Putnam. MMC appears to be ready to sell Putnam, which Mr. Dickerson said would be a positive move for an entity that does not fit in with the core business. The downside, he said, would be the loss of a diversified revenue stream.

Gretchen Roetzer, Fitch analyst in Chicago, in discussing Aon, said the firm has a stable outlook reflecting a business model that is less dependent on contingent commissions and has made other financial adjustments, including the pay down of debt and refinancing that has improved its financial position. The company has also retained customers while growing new business.

Mr. Dickerson said he has a positive outlook on Willis, reflecting its strong business and financial culture. However, Willis could suffer more financially from downturns in the market cycle than Marsh and Aon due to its size and dependence wholly on insurance broking services, he noted.

Willis also suffers a disadvantage because smaller competitors still benefit from contingent commissions. He noted that compared to Marsh and Aon, Willis appears to have gotten through the commission scandal “relatively unscathed.”

He added that Willis could see an upgrade in its rating if its operating performance continues to outpace its closest competitors.

Special Reports /

Brokers Still In Recovery From Commission Loss

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