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While insurance executives at a meeting here last week agreed that profits will fall in 2007, experts said premiums charged will truly reflect risk–not competitive pressures–arguing that industry fundamentals have clearly changed.

“You’re seeing more of a focus on risk than ever before,” said Matthew Mosher, group vice president of global property-casualty ratings for Oldwick, N.J.-based rating agency A.M. Best Company. He said that risk-based premiums are particularly notable in commercial lines, where there is typically more flexibility in pricing exposures.

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