Look for the insurance industry to produce returns on equity of between 10- and 12 percent, said one investment bank analyst this week. Morgan Stanley property-casualty analyst William Wilt said that performance of those numbers will depend on careful stock selection.

“Macro themes may hold more sway over performance in 2007, and on balance, non-life insurers offer some defensive attributes versus other financials including less sensitivity to the low, flat yield curve or credit cycle,” Mr. Wilt said.

Personal lines look like the least attractive sector, he said. For several years pricing sophistication was the key to success in this sector, but that has been replaced by what Mr. Wilt calls “presence,” with the media blitz by GEICO as an example of how that is achieved.