Two hurricanes will hit the United States next year, which will see a period of high hurricane activity in 2007, a London-based forecasting group announced today.

The prediction came from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College, London.

TSR said its long-range forecast anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity will be 60 percent above the 1950-2006 norm next season.

According to TSR, who said its long-range outlooks for the exceptionally active 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons and active 2003 hurricane season proved accurate, it is 76 percent likely that U.S. landfalling hurricane activity in 2007 will be in the top one-third of years historically.

The group said there is 79 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 6 percent chance of a below-normal season

For the Atlantic basin as a whole, it foresees 16 tropical storms with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

The likelihood of an above-normal period of landfalling hurricane activity in the United States is 76 percent with a 15 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 9 percent chance of a below-normal season

Five tropical storms will hit the United States, but only two will have hurricane strength winds of 74 miles an hour or higher, TSR predicted.

The consortium said there will be two tropical storm strikes on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, of which one will be a hurricane.

Climate factors mentioned as influencing the TSR hurricane forecast for 2007 are the speed of trade winds and the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop.

The trade winds influence the spinning up of storms or cyclonic vorticity, while the warm sea waters provide heat and moisture to power incipient storms, TSR explained. The group anticipates weaker than normal trade winds and warmer than normal waters in 2007: conditions which it said both favor an above-average hurricane season.

Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of weather and climate extremes at the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College, said he is confident that 2007 will be another active hurricane season.

He pointed to activity that occurs in what is called an Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation year, such as 2006, and the effects of El Ni?o. During such years there is an 80 percent chance the following year will be followed by above normal hurricane activity.

"This result occurs because El Ni?o conditions tend to reverse sign by the following summer," Professor Saunders explained.

Regarding the less than precise long-range hurricane outlooks created for 2006, Professor Saunders said, "The 2006 hurricane season is atypical of years since 1950 and should not reflect badly on the general capability of forecasts."

He attributed the below-average 2006 hurricane season to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and related tropical storm development

Also mentioned was an "unexpected" onset of El Ni?o conditions from mid-September." There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before," said Professor Saunders.

TSR forecasts may be accessed through the Web site www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

Founded in 2000, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) offers a resource for forecasting the risk from tropical storms worldwide. The venture provides forecast products to increase risk awareness and to help decision making within the (re)insurance industry, other business sectors, government and society. The TSR consortium is co-sponsored by Benfield, the an independent reinsurance and risk intermediary, Royal & Sun Alliance, the global insurance group, and Crawford & Company, a global claims management solutions company. The TSR scientific grouping brings together climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians at University College London and the Met Office.

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