SEATTLE--A top Lloyd's official warned insurers today that despite recent good results, they may be teetering on the brink of disaster unless they exercise financial responsibility, embrace globalization and educate the public about their industry.

Julian James, Lloyd's director of worldwide markets, gave his cautionary advice at the annual meeting here of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI).

He noted forecasts that 2006 profits for property-casualty insurers could be the best in 51 years at up to $60 billion, with return on equity of 14.5 percent. However, he warned that "despite our current good fortune, I'm going to make a strong case today that we are still standing near the edge of the cliff."

Mr. James said unlike 2002, during a bad time for the industry when he appeared before the PCI and urged insurers to embrace changes, this year insurers are in "grave danger" and don't now.

Mr. James cited as his reason for worry the industry's historical trend, noting that in the last 30 years it has managed an underwriting profit only in 1977, 1978 and 2004.

Current warning signs, he said, include weak premium growth of 2.9 percent for the first six months of the year, premium rates sliding downward, and industry surplus rising adding up to "a pretty clear picture of stagnant demand and oversupply."

Additionally, he mentioned regulatory intervention--states, especially those in disaster-prone areas, are refusing to allow insurers to charge risk-based rates. He also noted signs pointing to a slowing U.S. economy, such as a decline in new home starts.

Mr. James wondered if at this point insurers will avoid stepping outside of their core business, allowing prices per unit of coverage to go lower, and thus incur underwriting losses.

The rational course for insurers, he added, is to not write for market share but to focus on underwriting performance, make terms and conditions as important as price, and stay with lines they know and can price properly.

Insurers' choice, he said, is to build on their recent progress toward sustainable profitability, or "drift back into the financial intensive care ward."

Mr. James took note of headlines calling insurers "villains" in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, while also citing a forthcoming U.S. Department of Homeland Security probe of carriers' claim-handling following the monster storm, mandated recently by Congress, as signs that insurers are once again in the public spotlight.

He urged his audience to "challenge the notion that 'profit' is a dirty word" and to do a better job of explaining to policyholders, regulators and other key stakeholders how a solvent industry helps the world economy.

Lloyd's is doing its part, Mr. James said, by contributing funds to a public relations initiative of the CEO Roundtable to improve the industry image.

Insurers should also mention, he advised, that they paid $170 billion to cover catastrophe losses in the last decade--including $80 billion over two years for U.S. hurricanes.

On the issue of globalization, Mr. James said wealth patterns will be shifting dramatically as well as insurance demand. He said Lloyd's is seeking reinsurance licensing in China, and believes it is the right time to further expand the geographical diversity of its market.

Globalization, he noted, requires more dialogue between national regulators, with industry support and representation in the process.

The United States, however, is "bogged down in an ancient hodge-podge of insurance rules," preventing competition, innovation and lower premiums, he added.

Mr. James pointed to the fact that the U.S. requires foreign insurers to post collateral equal to 100 percent of gross liabilities, while there is no such domestic requirement even for financially weak insurers.

"Our thinking and behavior must change if the insurance industry is to be a stable, secure industry for our policyholders and shareholders of the future," he concluded.

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Insurers At The Edge Of A Cliff, Lloyd's Warns

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