SEATTLE--Former Bush administration Health Secretary Tommy G. Thompson warned an insurance executives' conference here yesterday that the coming of a flu pandemic is a certainty and they need to take steps to be ready.

"Yes, we are going to have pandemic flu," Mr. Thompson said, noting that such an event has occurred on the average of every 30 years, with the last big epidemic occurring in 1918. "We're on borrowed time. It's not if; it's when."

Mr. Thompson, who left his secretary's post a year-and-a-half ago and is now chairman of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, which works on health care and public health issues, said once a fatal flu mutates to transmit from human to human, "it is going to be lethal."

Speaking at the annual meeting of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, Mr. Thompson asked his audience to consider what would happen to their businesses if a flu hit and 30 percent of their employees could not show up for work.

He noted that in terms of running their operation, the executives should consider that they might be among the stricken and should consider equipping workers with handheld remote devices for work outside the office as well as purchasing Tamiflu anti-flu medication.

The United States, he said, has only eight million doses of medication specifically designed to fight the current bird flu virus threat, clinically known as H5MI, and it requires two doses per person.

Once the flu arrives, Mr. Thompson advised, the attack would ebb and flow, lasting 12-to-15 months.

He said the nation is hampered because it uses an "arcane" method to produce vaccine, a process involving inoculation of chicken eggs. As health secretary, he said he asked for a $2.5 billion appropriation to improve vaccine production methods. However, even with the cash in hand, it would still take five years to get adequate production levels.

Mr. Thompson also said the nation needs a strong public health system equipped to deal with bio-terrorism, which "if we don't have, your businesses will be hurt."

After the Sept. 11 terror attacks, Mr. Thompson observed that "it was clear we had let public health wither on the vine" and the nation learned its limitations in dealing with threats like anthrax spores, smallpox and SARS from Asia.

Although $15 billion has been appropriated to meet these threats, and progress has been made, Mr. Thompson said "a lot needs to be done," particularly in the area of food shipment inspection, noting that less than 5 percent of the food that comes in from Asia is inspected.

"We are at war. We must remain vigilant...We must not be lulled," he warned.

Special Reports /

Thompson Warns Insurers: Flu Risk Certain

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