Claims News Service, August 4, 1:36 p.m. EDT — According to a report from ReAdvisory, a service of reinsurance intermediary Carvill, Tropical Storm Chris has significantly weakened and rapidly become disorganized. Chris' sea level circulation has become detached from its upper level structure and it is rapidly spinning down. It is unlikely it will gain status as the first hurricane of the 2006 season.

The NHC is somewhat at a loss to explain why this is happening, according to the report. Chris appeared to have been impacted by windshear in its northeasterly quadrant. However, the levels of shear (approx. 20 knots) are roughly the same, if not smaller, than the levels of shear that were present when Chris first formed. Further, Chris is now picking up the dry air that it managed to successfully keep out while it was forming.

Why Chris should have ignored the shear and the dry air during formation but is affected by it now is unknown. This situation goes to prove that, while experts understand much of the science of tropical cyclones, they are a long way from understanding them completely.

The ridge of high pressure (an extension of the Bermuda High) which has been building over Florida and the southern US has been strengthening. This is forcing Chris to take a more southerly track. The models are in greater agreement than we have seen for a number of days, predicting Chris will track just north of westward, skirting the northern coast of Hispaniola and on towards Cuba. It is increasingly likely that Chris will make a landfall along Cuba's northwestern coastline sometime over the weekend. The question is, however, will there be anything left of Chris by the time it reaches Cuba?

ReAdvisory's report stated that it is feasible Chris will be downgraded to a tropical depression by the end of today. If Chris does remain together until reaching land, it is highly unlikely to preserve any coherence once making landfall. The chances for any intensification appear to be almost nil at this time.

More information is available at HYPERLINK “http://www.carvill.com” Carvill by clicking here.

Special Reports /

TS Chris Unlikely To Become 1st Hurricane of 2006

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