A scientist at a London-based meteorological consortium said today that the group's research finds this year's hurricane season will be a busy one but not as bad as other forecasters make it.

"It likely will not be as active and destructive as 2005 and slightly below what other groups have predicted," said Mark Saunders, with the Tropical Storm Risk group that includes Benfield Hazard Research Centre.

TSR's start-of-season forecast is predicting four tropical storm strikes on the United States of which two will be hurricanes.

The consortium forecast is for overall hurricane activity to be 40 percent above the long-term norm. Dr. Saunders said this is lower than the outlook from Professor William Gray's Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, which foresees activity 95 percent above the norm and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate it will be 50 to 60 percent over norm.

Mr. Saunders said by comparison with 2005, the most active and destructive season on record, TSR's early forecast is 20 percent lower than at this time last year.

Professor Saunders said based on current climate factors TSR expects the Gulf of Mexico will not repeat with five intense Hurricanes as it did last year, which was a one-in-200-year event.

Sea temperature in the tropical North Atlantic, which when elevated helps support hurricanes, was 0.4 degrees Celsius above norm last year and this year is 0.2 Celsius warmer than the long-term norm, Dr. Saunders noted.

TSR consequently foresees:

o A 74 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 4 percent chance of a below-normal season.

oAn expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with eight of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

oA 70 percent probability of above-normal U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, a 22 percent likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Other climate factors behind TSR's forecast for an above-average hurricane season are the predictions for trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, which influences the spinning up of storms.

TSR also announced that the consortium will be launching a free e-mail alert service providing warnings of tropical storms worldwide during June. Users may also select their preferred wind speed and probability thresholds for an alert to be triggered.

TSR forecasts are online at www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

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