With auto insurers struggling to achieve top-line growth as pricing remains flat, no factor is more critical for healthy underlying margins than keeping loss costs favorable. Indeed, divining such trends has become a favorite pastime for equity analysts seeking to separate the winners from the losers in the world of personal lines insurers.
The carriers themselves shy away from offering their own projections of such trends for fear of tipping off the competition on what their own data tells them. So comments from them at reporting time remain fairly Delphic in their brevity.
Last month, Progressive posted some impressive profitability figures despite less than impressive premium growth–which the company in its commentary attributed to below-average frequency and severity trends.
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