ORLANDO, FLA.–Job injury frequency has declined more than 30 percent over the past decade and economic forces will continue that trend, an economist with the National Council on Compensation Insurance told an industry conference yesterday.

That forecast came from Harry Shuford, NCCI chief economist, in a talk at the group's annual seminar here outlining what he described as “the mystery of the disappearing frequency–so important, so misunderstood.”

Mr. Shuford noted that even as frequency has gone down, the average cost per claim has doubled. Over the past quarter century, he said, frequency has declined about 1 percent a year with some cyclical swings.

Of the economic factors, he cited a finding by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas that competitive labor markets require continuing improvements in working conditions and productivity.

He explained that businesses know that fewer accidents make them better performing operations and so the drive to be competitive makes them work to avoid injuries.

Dr. Shuford said that Wal-Mart, one of the nation's largest and most successful employers, had engineered significant drops in worker injury with a variety of nonglamorous methods such as minimizing the number of times workers handle inventory and using machines to stack shelves.

He displayed figures showing that the proverbial wisdom, that claims go up in a downward economy because laid off workers tend to file more, does not hold.

There are large layoffs during both good and bad economies, he pointed out. In boom times when there is more hiring, and thus more inexperienced workers, there are more injuries.

He cited U.S. Labor Bureau Statistics that while workers with less than a year on the job in 2004 accounted for 23 percent of the labor force, they accounted for 33.4 percent of all injuries.

Examining the frequency downtrend in the 1990s, Mr. Shuford said frequency was lower in virtually all states, all industries and occupations, and in such demographics as gender, event, source and body part injured.

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