For the property-casualty industry 2005 will be remembered asthe year doubt was cast upon catastrophe models, according to a newreport from Ernst & Young.

“The true fallout will occur in 2006 when the industry will beforced to determine its next steps,” said Chris Shea, nationaldirector for the property-casualty division of Ernst & YoungInsurance and Actuarial Advisory Services.

The group's 2006 Industry Outlook forecast that “it will be acrucial period as P-C insurers decide if they will continue toretain and manage catastrophe risk, or if they turn to the capitalmarkets, which could create a significant chain reaction.”

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