Swiss Re: Hard Market Not Dead Yet

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, Dec. 14, 4:22 p.m. EST?Property insurance rates have been taking a downward turn this year and some casualty rates are also showing signs of softening, but it's still premature to sign the hard market's death certificate, according to a Swiss Re executive.[@@]

The comments on the U.S. insurance pricing environment were offered by Patrick Mailloux, chief executive officer of the Swiss Re America Corp., during the reinsurer's annual year-end industry review held today in New York.

Mr. Mailloux recalled that this year the industry started to notice a rate decrease for property during the first quarter, while softening in some casualty lines began in the third quarter.

"Now, does that mean the hard market is over?" Mr. Mailloux asked. "No, it does not."

Mr. Mailloux pointed out that prices still are at very attractive levels and that overall the p-c industry is in a much better situation today than it was three years ago.

"What we are seeing is that $100 of premiums in the 2001 third quarter was at about a $130 level during the 2004 third quarter on average when you look at all lines combined," he said.

But the pricing landscape still varies quite a bit by business lines, Mr. Mailloux said. He noted that property lines are comparatively at the lowest level among business lines because of the recent rate drops. For property lines, $100 of premiums from the 2001 third quarter stood at slightly above a $110 level in the 2004 third quarter.

Directors and officers and errors and omissions lines, on the other hand, are still at the highest levels comparatively speaking, with premiums standing at near a $150 level relative to the $100 premium from the 2001 third quarter.

"Where do we stand in the cycle? As we see them, most lines of business are still at very attractive levels," Mr. Mailloux said. He noted that some casualty lines of business are still showing potential for rate increases while other lines like engineering and marine are at the very peak.

Currently, property lines are "a bit of a question mark" after the four hurricanes, Mr. Mailloux said. He said that while he's seeing some moderations in property rate decreases, "it's still early to tell ultimately what pricing effect the four hurricanes will have on property lines."

In his presentation, Mr. Mailloux also cautioned that while the industry focuses a lot on rate increases, it also tends to forget at times that there is still significant loss inflation in some lines of business that erode rate increases.

He explained that around the world, property exposure keeps growing, and some of the trends the industry is absorbing in terms of natural catastrophes include concentrations of value and population in coastal areas and higher insurance penetration. And there is also a new threat dimension of man-made catastrophes since Sept. 11, 2001, he warned.

Speaking on the industry's underwriting performance, Mr. Mailloux said that in the first half of 2004, U.S. p-c insurers overall were standing at about 94.5 percent combined ratio. But in the second half of 2004, the industry was hit by four very significant hurricanes, adding about $22 billion of losses to the industry.

Mr. Mailloux said those hurricanes would probably add 6 points to the industry-wide combined ratio, which would bring the combined ratio for the year to about 100 percent.

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Swiss Re: Hard Market Not Dead Yet

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