Flooding in Thailand that began in July and peaked in October and November could result in insured losses of more than $10 billion, according to the latest estimates.

Swiss Re says industry losses could come in between $8 billion and $11 billion. The global reinsurer put its own losses at around $600 million.

Aon Benfield, a subsidiary of Aon Corp., says industry losses could exceed $10 billion, and adds that economic losses could be as high as $45 billion.

Munich Re says it expects its share of losses to be around €500 million ($666.1 million at current exchange rate) net before tax.

Additionally, in November Tokio Marine Holdings announced that it had incurred estimated net claims of $1.3 billion from the event. Part of that figure includes a retained share of reinsurance, placed with Lloyd’s syndicate Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicate 1880. Syndicate 1880’s share of the $1.3 billion loss was recently estimated to be $700 million.

Based on the Swiss Re and Munich Re estimates, Moody’s Investors Service says it expects the event to “meaningfully hit” the reinsurance industry’s fourth-quarter results.

Moody’s said in its Weekly Credit Outlook that it expects the largest global reinsurance players to report the highest losses: “In addition to Swiss Re and Munich Re, these players include Hannover Re, Lloyd’s of London, SCOR, Berkshire Hathaway and Partner Re.”

The floods are due to heavy rains that began in July and fell heaviest in October and November. Moody’s says the floods have submerged major industrial areas containing factories belonging mostly to Japanese companies, disrupting the manufacture of electronic key components. Thailand is also a major producer of hard-disk drives for computers around the world, Moody’s notes.

Despite the large expected losses from this event, Moody’s says that barring any further catastrophes during the year, global reinsurers should be able to contain the flood losses in their fourth-quarter earnings: “It is possible that one or two players, as a result of significant market share and/or mismanagement of aggregate exposures, may suffer an overall fourth-quarter loss. But even in such a scenario, any effect on capital should be limited.”

Moody’s also maintains that the loss event should add momentum to hardening prices in the reinsurance industry.

Special Reports /

Thailand Floods Could Cause up to $11B in Insured Losses

Related Stories

Recommended For You