Tropical cyclones, monsoons and severe weather related to the ElNino and La Nina events are on the rise in the Asian-Pacificregion, in part due to global warming, according to the GuyCarpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a jointinitiative of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC and City Universityof Hong Kong.

The third annual report, released today, focuses on the findingsof the 27 research projects conducted by GCACIC members on 2011climate issues in the Asia-Pacific region and across the globe.Clickhere to see the complete study.

“The first step in combating climate-related risks is tounderstand them, which is why GCACIC remains committed to studyingthe climate issues most pressing to businesses operating within theAsia-Pacific region,” says James Nash, CEO of the Asia Pacificregion at Guy Carpenter. “The initiative will continue to providethe resources needed to advise the insurance industry on how tobetter understand, prepare for and manage the risks associated withnatural disasters and catastrophes.”

The study examined in detail climate changes in the followingareas:

Tropical cyclones. Thereport examines the increasing intensity of tropical cycloneprecipitation intensity (TCPI) due to global warming and theinactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activityfrom 1998 to 2010. The study found that TCPI has been increasing ata rate of about 4 percent over the past two decades through theincrease in atmospheric water vapor content under global warming.However, during the time period measured, the study observes thattropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific exhibitedtwo distinct active periods and two inactive periods.

Monsoons. The studyexamined the long-term change in summer moisture circulation overSouth China, the East Asian winter monsoon changes in the seasonalcycle and extremes in China. From 1960 to 2008, the summer warmingtrend tended to be more prominent during the most extreme recordheat than during other times. The summer season “advancedsignificantly by about 2 days per decade in most of China.” The study also examined the connection between East Asian monsoonsand typhoons, and the relationship between Ural-Siberian thermalblocking and the East Asian winter monsoon season.

ENSO and ENSO (El Niño SouthernOscillation) impacts. The study examined the influence ofNorth America sea surface temperature on the onset of El Niñoevents – suggesting that when the North Atlantic is colder thannormal in the summer, an El Nino event is likely to be initiated inthe subsequent spring in the tropical Pacific.

(AP Photo/Efrain Patino)

Global Warming. Thestudy found that from 1979 to 2008, the globally averaged watervapor has “significantly increased statistically” in response toglobal warming. However, the increase doesn't not occur over alllocations; although water vapor “significantly” increased in SouthAmerica and southern Africa, the same can't be said aboutAustralia, although surface air temperature has increased in allthree continental regions.

Climate Change. Thestudy looked at Pakistan's two-stage monsoon and links with therecent climate change, specifically the 2010 floods. The study alsoconsidered was air quality, measuring nitrogen oxide, aerosol andtrace gas pollutants and their different source types. The authorsused sun light observations scanning the air masses over Hong Kong,carried out continuously since January 2011 to obtain time seriesof profiles for major air pollutants.

(AP Photo/Pervez Masih)