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In a report in the Jan. 23 issue of NU forecasting the likely top trends this year for agents and brokers, one top executive made a prediction that really caught our attention.

“Regarding the dynamic between captive writers and independent agents: We will see more and more captive writers pursue a relationship with independent brokers,” David Eslick, chairman and CEO of Marsh & McLennan Agency, opined at the time. “They are thinking about growth and the opportunity to expand their distribution platform.”

A few months into the year, we decided to follow up on this intriguing statement to see if the trend is beginning to materialize.

Key industry associations, for one, are not seeing it. Neither the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America on the agency side nor the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America on the carrier side report any sort of significant shift of exclusives into the independent market at this time.

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