Each newspaper in the country inthe last week or so has issued its annual early-spring predictionof where Major League Baseball teams are going to finish this yearin their respective divisions (disappointing to see a lot offourth-place picks for the Red Sox—I'm seeing a World Serieswin).

Inspired by these sports writers willing to go out on a limb andfearlessly predict the future, I offer up my own predictions ofsome key insurance events that will come to pass between now andGame 7 of the 2012 Red Sox-Phillies World Series (as long as a verywet October pushes the season finale past the elections).

1. The Supreme Court will rule unconstitutionalthe individual-mandate portion of the Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act in a 5-4 decision. The dissenting opinions willbe nasty, brutish—and long. The Obama administration and its Senateallies will try to craft a solution that uses the federal tax codeto incentivize universal coverage—to get around having to rely onthe commerce clause. The attempt goes nowhere in the bitterlypartisan House.