Strategic surprise is a precious weapon in terrorist campaigns.Al Qaida managed to achieve this spectacularly on 9/11. Since then,counterterrorism efforts have been improved considerably, bothwithin the American homeland and abroad. The result of thismuch-heightened state of alert: Out of dozens of significant jihaditerrorist plots against the Western Alliance, only a very few havenot been interdicted. 

Whether it is procuring or improvising weaponry, undertakingsurveillance or testing an attack plan, specialist training andexpertise within a terrorist team are needed for a plot to have areasonable degree of success. Furthermore, the execution of acommando-style plot, such as hijacking or sabotage, would require asizable group of assailants. But any major plot has a good chanceof being stopped—the more ambitious the plot, the more guys who areinvolved, the greater is this chance. Too many terrorists spoil theplot.

Indeed, since 9/11, the only successful plots against theWestern Alliance have involved improvised explosive devices andsmall arms. The development of technically sophisticated plotsusing innovative weapons, such as those of mass destruction, isoptimally fostered within safe havens, which have been militarilydenied to Al Qaida since 9/11.