Bad News

NCCI President and CEO Steve Klingel opened the symposium with an acknowledgment of the "trying year in 2009," and dire predictions at least for the short term. "A series of unknown factors -- from the pace of economic recovery to the long-term impact of the new federal health-care law, among others -- leave the line in a precarious position and facing a host of challenges moving into 2010," he warned.

As did many at the symposium, Klingel spoke about federal health-care reform and how it may impact workers' compensation, specifically mentioning the Federal Black Lung benefits included in the legislation. "The Senate inserted a section into the bill that modifies eligibility criterion for Federal Black Lung benefits for miners and survivors retroactively to claims filed after Jan. 1, 2005," Klingel said. "These changes will likely increase disease loadings for coal mine exposure, and increase reserves for occupational disease in the various pools that have significant exposure to black lung." A major problem for insurers -- no premiums were collected to cover the additional exposure.

NCCI Chief Actuary Dennis Mealy offered more dismal news in his data-rich presentation of tables, graphs, and charts. Mealy reported that:

o The workers' compensation calendar year combined loss ratio was 110 in 2009, up nine points from 2008. This rise was the largest single year increase since the mid-1980s.

o The 2009 deteriorating underwriting results, combined with the record low interest rate environment, left the line at only slightly better than break-even after investment income is considered.

o The 2009 net written premium for workers' compensation declined precipitously for both private carriers and the state funds. Written premium has now declined 23 percent over the last two years.

o Net written premium for the total P&C industry was down 3.7 percent. This is the third straight year for P&C declines, the longest consecutive timespan since the Great Depression.

Good News

Yes, there is good news in the workers' compensation insurance arena, according to Insurance Information Institute President Robert P. Hartwig, PhD, CPCU. The always energetic and engaging Hartwig declared, "The P&C insurance industry -- including workers' compensation -- will see growth in 2011 for the first time since 2006. For five years we have not seen growth in this business."

Hartwig, however, does not think the growth will be dramatic, massive, or even readily apparent. He predicted that the industry can expect 2.5-to-3 percent growth over the next two years, with the fastest growth coming from the health, science and technology sectors, not manufacturing and construction.

On the plus side, capacity remains adequate if residual markets are used as a measure. Mealy told attendees that residual market shares declined for NCCI Plan states, continuing a trend that began in 2004. Several non-NCCI states -- Delaware, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey and North Carolina -- also posted lower residual market shares.

And despite the economic havoc worldwide, Mealy said that the industry remains well capitalized and able to meet its obligations. He also noted that claim frequency continues to decline, dropping 4 percent in 2009. Even better news: From 1991 through 2008, claim frequency has seen a cumulative change of -54.7 percent.

Best Ad Lib

By far the best ad lib at the symposium was by Triple I's Hartwig, who is based in New York City. The symposium was held just days after the man identified as responsible for the Nissan Pathfinder car bomb attempt was taken off a plane at JFK a few minutes before wheels up. During a panel discussion moderated by Hartwig, one member spoke glowingly about how Maine is able to track moose hunters who claim to be disabled, exposing them as workers' compensation frauds. Hartwig exclaimed, "You can track moose hunters in the woods in Maine, but we can't keep terrorists from boarding an airplane in New York?"

Many of the presentations from the symposium are available online at www.ncci.com.

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