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Pricing in the soft commercial insurance market won’t turn around for another two years at least, thanks to a variety of factors, the head of Arch Worldwide Insurance Group predicts.

“Barring any massive unforeseen event, capital markets related, it’s going to be a combination of reserve margins disappearing, over prior years, which leads to–if you’re going to maintain not crazy results–underbooking the current year,” Mark D. Lyons, chair and chief executive officer of New York, N.Y.-based Arch, told National Underwriter. “There simply hasn’t been enough pain yet” to turn rates around.

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