Hurricane season is here, and with it comes uncertainty. Even amidst a bounty of other industry distractions, hardly a day goes by that a weather expert’s opinions, reasoning, and assorted statistics doesn’t cross my desk. They are filled with abbreviations like ENSO and SST, and phrases like multi-decadal signals and La Nina effects. All try to explain why this year will or won’t be a busy year for storms. Generally, they incite more debate than anxiety.

I’m alternately impressed and skeptical of these meteorological authorities. Impressed because I imagine that making substantiated guesses on something so intrinsically random seems likely to elicit only one response: criticism. (That is something with which those in the adjusting field could empathize.) So when you’re willing to make yourself a target, willing to put the apple on your head and ask Bill Tell to load up his crossbow and take his best shot, consider me impressed.

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