The commercial insurance pricing cycle is bottoming out at last. But with the economy contracting, rates are not expected to start rising in general until the fourth quarter of this year, or perhaps even the first quarter of 2010, Advisen Ltd. predicts.
However, one investment firm foresees a hardening market as early as midyear.
The problem remains supply versus demand, according to Advisen--a New York-based insurance analytics and research firm that produces the quarterly "Benchmark Survey" of market conditions with the Risk and Insurance Management Society. Advisen estimated that the property-casualty insurance industry was roughly $100 billion overcapitalized as of the end of 2007.
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