Claims News Service, Dec. 30, 12:54 p.m. EST — A report on the performance of near term hurricane models finds that the models significantly overestimated U.S. losses from Atlantic hurricanes for the cumulative 2006 through 2008 hurricane seasons.

Karen Clark & Company, a catastrophe risk management firm, analyzed near term models that were introduced in 2006 by the three major catastrophe modelers – AIR Worldwide (AIR), EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions (RMS). AIR initially predicted an overall annualized increase in hurricane losses of 40 percent above the long term average, but later lowered that figure to 16 percent in 2007. EQECAT predicted increases of between 35 and 37 percent, and RMS consistently predicted an overall increase of 40 percent above the long term average.

Assuming long term average annual hurricane losses of $10 billion for each year, these figures translate into cumulative insured losses for 2006 through 2008 of $37.2 billion, $40.8 billion, and $42 billion respectively, for the AIR, EQECAT and RMS models. The actual cumulative losses were $13.3 billion, far lower than the model predictions, and more than 50% below the long term cumulative average of $30 billion.

Catastrophe models were introduced to the insurance industry in the late 1980s. By utilizing many decades of historical data, the models gave insurance companies better estimates of what could happen and more specifically, the probabilities of losses of different sizes on specific portfolios of insured properties. The destructive 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were catalysts for introducing the near term models. Use of these models by insurance and reinsurance companies, which are based on short term assessments of the frequencies of hurricanes, was a radical departure from the way in which catastrophe average annual losses (AALs) and probable maximum losses (PMLs) are typically derived.

According to the Karen Clark & Company report, in order for insured losses to reach 40 percent above average for the five year period, in line with the highest model predictions, the next two years will have to be similar to 2004, or there will have to be another Hurricane Katrina.

The report notes that hurricane activity is influenced by many climatological factors, many of which are known, but some unknown, by scientists. There are complicated feedback mechanisms in the atmosphere that cannot be quantified precisely even by the most sophisticated and powerful climate models. The report recommends that insurers, reinsurers and regulators evaluate the efficacy of the near term hurricane models in light of this uncertainty.

The report, Near Term Hurricane Models – How Have They Performed?, is available at www.karenclarkandco.com.

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