Forecasters said Tropical Storm Gustav could develop into the first major hurricane of this season to strike the U.S. coast on the Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav has already battered Haiti with torrential rains taking as many as 16 lives.

The storm was expected to move away from Haiti and move westward between Cuba and Jamaica as the National Weather Service issued hurricane watches and warnings for the region.

As it passed Cuba, the storm was expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

The storm is not expected to intensify significantly until it enters the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to possibly become a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. A five-day tracking forecast of the storm has it making landfall anywhere from the Florida panhandle west to Texas, with Louisiana right in the middle of the storms projected path.

That probability was enough for Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon to announce he would hold a press conference tomorrow at department headquarters in Baton Rouge “to discuss the potential impact of Gustav to Louisiana.”

Steve E. Smith, president of Property Solutions for Carvill ReAdvisory, said in a statement: “The forecast track for this system presents Gustav as a significant threat to the U.S. coast by the end of the weekend. Gustav is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico potentially as a major hurricane, taking a track in the general direction of Louisiana and the Gulf oil field.”

He added, “The long-range forecast, however, is subject to significant uncertainty… The potential for Gustav to intensify strongly when it reaches the Gulf is high.”

Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide said “the speed with which Gustav re-intensifies will depend on its forward speed and direction–that is, how quickly it can escape the influence of Haiti's rugged terrain.”

AIR added that oil and natural gas producers are keeping a close eye on Gustav and some companies have indicated they will begin evacuations of offshore drilling platforms and rigs soon.

Special Reports /

Storm Gustav Threatens Mexican Gulf Coast

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