Claims News Service, July 22, 11:14 a.m. EST — Tropical Storm Dolly, which as of 5 a.m. EST today was located in the Gulf of Mexico, about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, is forecasted to reach Category 1 hurricane status sometime tomorrow morning.

“Tropical storm Dolly is currently heading towards the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of nearly 50 miles per hour (85 km/hr). Reports suggest that it will continue in a northwest direction, making landfall in southern Texas or the northern gulf coast of Mexico in the next few days,” said Neena Saith, catastrophe response manager at Risk Management Services (RMS).

“While most forecast models suggest favorable environmental conditions for the storm to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, there are wide discrepancies in its estimated strength, ranging from a weak tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane. About half of the models suggest Dolly will reach hurricane status within 48 hours, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting Dolly to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, reaching its maximum intensity just before making landfall in northern Mexico in around 72 hours,” continued Saith.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from Brownsville to Port O'Connor while a tropical storm warning is in effect from north of Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. The Mexican government has also issued a hurricane warning from Rio San Fernando northwards to the US/Mexico border.

The NHC said Dolly could produce four-to-eight inches of rain in parts of south Texas and northern Mexico, with up to 15 inches possible in some areas. The NHC also warned that Dolly could cause coastal storm-surge flooding of four-to-six feet above normal levels near and to the north of where the storm's center makes landfall.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has activated 1,200 National Guard troops and other emergency crews in anticipation of the storm's arrival, but no mandatory evacuations have been ordered. Emergency officials said they were particularly concerned about the amount of rain Dolly is forecasted to bring to flood-prone areas in the region.

Offshore, reports said oil workers from rigs in the western Gulf of Mexico have been evacuated, but analysts said Dolly appeared likely to pass south and west of the biggest concentration of U.S. platforms. The impact on production is expected to be limited.

More information and a map of the storm are available in Guy Carpenter's catastrophe information report. [PDF]

Interested in more catastrophe news and in-depth articles? Head over to Claims' catastrophe channel for more information.

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