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Following their December predictions for an active 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season, several prominent forecasting teams have issued updated reports. Although the experts at Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), WSI Corporation, and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) differ somewhat in their approaches and specific storm projections, they concur that the 2008 season will be above average. As Dr. Todd Crawford, seasonal forecaster at WSI, explains, this expectation stems primarily from the probable continuation of warmer-than-usual Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

“Since 1995, most tropical seasons have been more active than the long-term averages because of the warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures,” Crawford said. “The current La Nina event, which is decaying somewhat this spring, should leave behind a wind shear environment that is favorable for the development of tropical systems in the summer and fall of 2008. We have increased our forecast slightly based on continued Atlantic warming in recent months, along with the persistence, albeit a bit weaker, of the La Nina event.”

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