The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported today there could possibly be up to five hurricanes with winds up to 111 mph in the Atlantic Basin this year.

NOAA said there is a 60-to-70 percent chance of a total of 12-to-16 named storms, including six-to-nine hurricanes and two-to-five major hurricanes of Category Three or higher which reach or exceed the 111 mph level. It does not predict how many hurricanes will actually make landfall.

The meteorologists said there is a 90 percent chance of a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season this year for the Atlantic Basin.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, this season will likely see "considerable activity," with a 65 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near-normal season. NOAA said these numbers translate into a 90 percent chance of a near-normal or above-normal season.

The NOAA noted that an average season has 11 named storms, of which six are hurricanes. Two hurricanes reach major status in an average season.

The NOAA said climate patterns expected this season are consistent with patterns in past seasons that have been associated with near-normal and above-normal seasons.

Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement that among the main factors influencing this year's seasonal outlook are a "combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995."

These include the anticipated lingering effects of La Ni?a, some unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific as well as "a continuation since 1995 of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic."

Some, but not all, of NOAA's scientists have attributed recent increased hurricane activity to conditions including lower wind shear, warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic, and conducive winds coming off the coast of Africa.

Special Reports /

NOAA Looks At Odds For Above-Normal Hurricane Season

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