Risk managers are sitting pretty right now, enjoying the fruits of a softening commercial insurance market. However, buyers should beware not to party too hard celebrating today's falling premiums and expanding coverage, as a hangover awaits should a major natural or economic catastrophe send prices soaring once again, leading risk management officials warn.

Indeed, those who take too much credit for dollars saved on coverage in today's buyer's market might have a harder time explaining higher budget requests when insurance pricing inevitably “boomerangs” down the line, these leaders explained.

For now, however, the speed with which the commercial insurance market is softening has been a pleasant surprise for buyers, David Bradford, editor-in-chief of Advisen, said earlier this month, referencing the Risk and Insurance Management Society's Benchmark Survey of renewal prices reported by corporate risk managers.

He told National Underwriter the insurance industry “continues to be overcapitalized, continues to post profits, and surplus continues to accumulate–all factors that contribute to the competitiveness of the market.”

The market is unlikely to change direction anytime soon, according to Mr. Bradford. Indeed, barring a “fairly substantial natural catastrophe–maybe even required on the order of 2005 [Hurricane Katrina] and certainly 2004 [when four major hurricanes hit]–I don't think anything's going to stop it in the near term,” he observed.

He noted that since the beginning of 2004, rate levels overall have lost 50 percent of the gains imposed during the hard market post-9/11, from 2001 through 2003. “When you've given up half of those gains,” he added, “it's hard to say that underwriting discipline is holding. There's no question that the market is extremely competitive.”

What's more, in some lines–such as general liability and workers' compensation–Mr. Bradford said insurers have given up about two-thirds of the gains they made from 2001 through 2003.

“There's no question this is definitely a buyer's market right now,” he said. “The problem is, though, the market tends to boomerang. Once it turns, it's going to turn sharply. So I'm not sure the cycle does anybody any good in the long run. But at this point in the cycle it certainly looks good for risk managers. So they should take advantage while it lasts.”

According to the report, undeterred by mounting claims from the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, the average directors and officers liability premium fell 19 percent in the first quarter–the largest decrease of all the lines of business tracked by Advisen for the benchmark survey.

Continuing the trend of steady, moderate decreases exhibited over the past two years, general liability premiums fell another 2 percent. After demonstrating a moderating trend over the course of 2007, workers' comp price decreases accelerated during the first quarter, falling 11 percent.

In a clear indication that competition is returning even to catastrophe-exposed regions, property premiums fell 6 percent–the largest quarterly decrease since Hurricane Katrina, according to the survey.

“We expected to see the soft market continue into 2008,” John R. Phelps, a member of RIMS board of directors and director of business risk solutions for Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida, said in a statement. “Not only are soft market conditions ongoing, they appear to be accelerating, due in no small part to the excellent combined ratios for key markets. This bodes well for insurance buyers this year.”

RIMS President Janice Ochenkowski said that if risk managers are “able to maximize the advantage to their insurance programs and take advantage of market conditions, that's always a good thing, particularly when there are some economic issues in the general financial sector.”

However, Ms. Ochenkowski, who is managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., noted that a concern of risk managers is the financial stability of some carriers, “and even more so, as there are rating implications for write-downs by various insurers.” So while it's a good time for buyers, she said, “it's also a time to be cautious and alert.”

She also warned that while falling insurance costs are helpful to risk managers, “it's always important for them to be sure their employers understand the insurance market is cyclical, and not to take too much credit for anything more than being savvy about market conditions–rather than taking credit for the downturn in pricing.”

Ms. Ochenkowski added that “I think most risk managers communicate well with their internal business units, and folks are well aware that the insurance market is a cyclical one–up today, maybe down tomorrow.”

Mr. Phelps agreed that “at some point, pricing will bottom out, and [the turn] can be triggered by a number of things–one of which is increased catastrophe losses. If [losses] get to a certain level, that will start to affect capacity and the combined ratio for carriers. Then you will start to see an upward trend in pricing. But now it's still in a preferred market from a buyer's standpoint, regarding pricing.”

Mr. Phelps said his company's property renewals come up in June. Nationally, he observed, “property insurance is pretty open, with the exception of windstorm. I'm seeing it through the Florida viewpoint, where it's still very restrictive.” He noted that high retentions are being required and pricing is “still pretty stiff” on properties with catastrophe exposure.

This is a result of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, including the record-setting Katrina. “This has gotten the property carriers pretty cautious, and they should be,” he said. “But we're seeing that the carriers that are left writing windstorm in Florida are doing so in a far more circumspect manner, which probably should have happened in the past 10 years, rather than just in the past several years.”

He said insurers are pricing ocean locations differently–or else not making the coverage available and protecting their capacity. Every property owner in the state of Florida, whether business or personal, is affected by tighter windstorm capacity, he noted.

Overall, Mr. Phelps said catastrophes have caused the underwriting community to be “more circumspect in writing anything with catastrophe potential.”

Nevertheless, he concluded, overall, this is a buyer's market for risk managers. Still, echoing the warnings of Ms. Ochenkowski, he cautioned risk managers to be careful about “how much they take credit for with the chief financial officer, because at some point, they're going to be giving this money back [to insurers] when the market changes. If you look back over the past 50 years, the cycles are obvious.”

He said that although insurance cycles have become “longer and deeper, they are still there.” His advice to risk managers is to “keep your money in a sock. You'll be giving it away [to insurers] in the future,” once the market inevitably hardens again.

Regarding broker relations, Mr. Phelps noted that investigations of bid-rigging and contingency fee abuse by major brokerage firms by New York's former attorney general, Eliot Spitzer, “has pretty much settled out.” He said that even though the probes had “a devastating impact, especially on the large brokers,” the resulting transparency in brokerage compensation has been positive.

“The more light we can shed on the broker transactions, the better,” he said. “I don't think there's a limit to that.” The relationship between the buyer and the provider of coverage should be a “totally transparent transaction, including all fees and commissions earned.”

Mr. Phelps said there may yet be another step needed, looking into disclosures of interest made on so-called “float”–when brokers collect premiums from buyers but hold onto the money for a period of time before remitting them to insurers.

On the other hand, he said, because the market is “infinitely more intricate” today than in the past, having a strong, long-term relationship with the broker is more important than ever.

Ms. Ochenkowski observed that as a discipline, risk management is getting “much more attention from the C-suite,” meaning CEOs and CFOs, “primarily because the rating agencies and other financial analysts are also paying attention to it and asking questions about how risks are managed within a corporation–with questions about the risk management program and processes.”

While some may see such increased scrutiny as unsettling, it's “always a good thing for RIMS members,” she said. “Our members are strong and capable and able to help their organizations respond to those questions from analysts and to describe what we'd like to think of as a good and robust risk management program.”

Risk managers looking for information on how to respond to such emerging demands or to hone certain business skills “should look to RIMS and attend the conferences as well as chapter meetings,” Ms. Ochenkowski advised. “Those are great opportunities to learn from your peers and sharpen your own risk management skills.”

Regarding broker relations, she said, “things have been relatively quiet in that arena. The expectations of insurance buyers are clear.” The issue of transparency and understanding various sources of brokerage revenue have been established as mandates, and “the major insurance brokers have figured out how to give that information and advice to clients.”

She noted, however, that “some of the local and regional brokers have not perhaps paid as much attention to it–possibly because their clients may not all be risk management clients, and so are not quite as attuned to the issue as professional risk managers are.”

Special Reports /

It's Party Time For Risk Managers, But Buyer's Market Won't Last Forever

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