It was the only light moment in an otherwise grim panel discussion about the difficult year ahead for carriers and their producers. During the Q&A, an audience member complained that insurers had no right to be "euphoric" about achieving a 14 percent rate of return last year, even if that was far better than the single-digit results normally posted, because it still trailed broader industry benchmarks. "Do we really look euphoric to you?" deadpanned Ramani Ayer, chairman and CEO of The Hartford.

The response drew hearty laughter from those attending the Property-Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum in New York City--or what I like to call the annual family reunion of top p-c insurer and association executives. Unfortunately, Mr. Ayer's quip was gallows humor, as the panel laid out the formidable challenges ahead. Among them:

o The top line will suffer, as commercial lines prices keep falling. Only 4 percent of those surveyed at the forum foresee any growth in industry premium volume this year. Nearly two-thirds (62 percent) anticipate "flat" results, while 34 percent predict a decline.

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