It's relatively easy to pick the top 10 stories of the year that just passed, as I did last week, but predicting events that will rock the industry in the year ahead takes chutzpah! Here goes nothing!

1: Hail To The New Chief! The good news for the industry is that former trial attorney John Edwards will not be our next president. However, expect a Democrat–most probably Hillary Clinton–to be voted into the White House in November, which means health care reform will be the top story for 2009!

2: Bottom's Up! Everyone sounds pretty confident carriers will maintain underwriting discipline and keep pricing rational, but I'm not. Look for price cuts to accelerate midyear for all but cat-exposed risks.

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