Back on Jan. 1, I peered into my crystal ball for the likely Top-10 Property-Casualty Insurance Stories of 2007. Before you check out my actual Top-10 (see this week's cover story), let's see how my predictions panned out.

1 TRIA Renewed! I thought this was a no-brainer, but once again renewal of the federal terrorism reinsurance program went down to the wire. Still, the industry and risk managers have to be happy that in the end, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act was renewed for seven years, and not the three-year extension I predicted.

2 Look Out Below On Prices! I nailed this one! I expected an accelerating soft market in most lines, but said the bottom would not drop out yet. Bingo! Give credit to underwriters for keeping the market rational. I warned, however, that "all bets are off" for 2008 if carriers enjoyed another cat-free year--which they did.

3 Flood Exclusion Springs A Leak! Turns out I was overly alarmed about this threat, as insurers won almost all their court battles over flood damage claims. Maybe judicial activism is dead after all. Meanwhile, efforts to force homeowners carriers selling policies for the National Flood Insurance Program to give up their anti-concurrent-causation clause failed.

4 Greenberg Is The Comeback Kid! While AIG's former top dog, Maurice Greenberg, did make his triumphant return to the podium, speaking at a few industry meetings, his continuing legal problems over alleged balance sheet manipulation via questionable finite re deals left him with little to say beyond the wonders of the burgeoning Chinese market. I miss the normally outspoken Hank, who, as journalists like to say, used to "give good quote" before being muzzled by his lawyers.

5 Gov. Spitzer Takes Aim At Insurers! I predicted the industry's nemesis as state attorney general and his new superintendent--former Willis general counsel, Eric Dinallo--would "pleasantly surprise," and was right on target. Outside of possibly mandating fee disclosure for all producers next year, the business has little to complain about and much to praise.

6 Lloyd's Goes Electronic! I was sure the old coffeehouse would go all "Starbucks" on us and test virtual placements over the Web, but as it turned out, while making progress, the paper-choked market has yet to even process all new claims electronically, let alone trade exposures online. Still, the outlook for a more efficient, high-tech market is bullish.

7 Collateral Re Rules Change At Last! The National Association of Insurance Commissioners continued its snail's pace debating a more reasonable and rational regulation of foreign reinsurers, but could not pull the trigger on a new model law. Now that both New York and Florida have gone rogue by proposing their own criteria, the NAIC had better get its act together before the market is thrown into total chaos.

8 Uncle Sam Dips Toe Into Insurance Regulation! I was sure Congress would pass federal standards on surplus lines and reinsurance, while letting states do all the dirty work, but Washington is locked in such gridlock, the bill never really had a chance.

9 Bermuda Gives Birth To More Billion-Dollar Babies! The soft market discouraged new entries and prompted many relative newborns to regurgitate excess cash to shareholders.

10 National Cat Fund Goes Nowhere! There was lots of talk but little action in Congress. With no major catastrophe to force the issue, and with the White House firmly against meddling in the private market, that's not likely to change.

Special Reports /

20-20 Hindsight

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