The Casualty Actuarial Society said it will hold a seminar next month on the application of predictive modeling techniques by actuaries to such areas as homeowners insurance, workers' compensation, commercial risks, auto loss costs and dental insurance fraud.

Sessions are scheduled for Oct. 11-12 at the Riviera Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas.

CAS said the featured speaker is John Elder, founder of the Elder Research Inc. His firm focuses on scientific and commercial applications of pattern discovery and optimization, including stock selection, image recognition, medical text mining, biometric identification, drug efficacy, credit scoring, cross-selling, investment timing and fraud detection.

A variety of concurrent sessions will be presented, CAS said, with basic- and intermediate-level offerings on predictive modeling and analytic techniques such as:

o Generalized linear models, classification and regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, neural networks, generalized additive models, clustering, principal component analysis, and model validation.

o Complementing the sessions on techniques and analysis will be practical sessions on specific lines of business, data sources for modeling, and predictive modeling project management and implementation, CAS said.

The seminar is intended for actuaries and other insurance professionals at all levels who wish to learn about the potential uses of predictive modeling. The seminar will benefit actuarial students, insurance analysts and insurance company management alike, the group explained.

Details and an online registration form are available on the CAS Web Site at www.casact.org. On-site registration is available at the seminar.

The Casualty Actuarial Society's mission is to advance actuarial science through a focus on research and education. Among its 4,400 members are experts in property-casualty insurance, reinsurance, finance, risk management and enterprise risk management.

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