Most insurance executives polled at a conference this week said in the next three years their industry will have only a moderate chance of seeing profits increase and property-casualty premium growth will be flat or decline.

That finding was one of several reported from an interactive electronic survey taken of participants at KPMG's 19th annual insurance industry conference in New York this week.

The event drew 270 executives from the industry, according to KPMG. The firm said that in some cases, its poll results did not add up to 100 percent because respondents could provide more than one answer or choose not to answer the question.

Questions and responses from the on-the-spot survey follow.

Over the next one to three years, what will be the industry's ability to increase margins? A total of 8 percent said strong; 64 percent, moderate; and 29 percent said weak. In 2006, when the same question was polled to participants, the respective responses were 5 percent, 62 percent and 32 percent.

Attendees were also asked which risk they viewed most significant for the industry. They responded as follows: credit risk, 17 percent; pricing risk, 56 percent; subprime risk, 5 percent; operational risk, 7 percent; concentration of risk, 5 percent; and regulatory/market conduct risk, 10 percent.

When asked about the outlook for premium growth in the life insurance industry, 54 percent said it would increase; 11 percent, that it would decrease; and 35 percent said it would remain the same. In 2006, results were nearly the same except the percent predicting a decline was 13 percent and those predicting it would remain the same was 33 percent.

When the premium growth question was posed about the property-casualty industry, 30 percent said there would be an increase; 43 percent, a decrease; and 26 percent said it would remain the same. That compared with responses in 2006 which found respective totals of 42 percent, 31 percent and 27 percent.

Asked how their companies will perform in the coming year compared with the last 12 months, executives responded as follows: significantly above last year, 5 percent; above last year, 48 percent; the same as last year, 39 percent; and significantly below last year, 9 percent. That compares with last year's responses of 4 percent, 55 percent, 37 percent, and 7 percent.

Those at the KPMG session also weighed in on what was most important for future growth. The top priority, according to the poll results, was product innovation, which garnered 33 percent of the vote, compared with 23 percent in the previous year.

When asked how excess capital should be deployed in the next two years, strategic acquisitions led the choices with 41 percent of the responses; technology investments, 30 percent; marketing and customer service programs, 19 percent; and stock repurchases, 10 percent. In 2006, the results were as follows: technology, 50 percent; strategic acquisitions, 38 percent; and stock repurchases, 12 percent. In 2006, marketing/customer programs was not an option offered to the audience.

Among those polled, 59 percent thought mergers and acquisitions will increase. Sixteen percent anticipate a decrease, and 25 percent maintain that M&A will be unchanged. The results compare with 2006 findings of a respective 38 percent, 20 percent and 42 percent.

In general, those attending the insurance conference were not overly concerned about the impact of the subprime mortgage market on insurers' investments.

Only 4 percent of those asked about the impact of the subprime market on the financial results and performance of the insurance industry said it would be extremely negative; 51 percent, a significantly negative impact; 44 percent, no impact at all; and 2 percent, positive.

When asked how confident they were about their company's ability to fully understand its exposures to the subprime industry and related potential losses, 33 percent responded that they were extremely confident; 40 percent, somewhat confident; 18 percent, don't know; and 9 percent, not at all confident.

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