The meteorological unit of a reinsurance brokerage said its latest research still finds that this year's hurricane season will be above average.

Those findings were contained in the July climate update released by London-based Carvill and ReAdvisory, a Carvill service.

Unlike other forecasting outlets, however, Carvill is unwilling to predict the number of strikes that can be expected on the U.S. shoreline.

Steve Smith, ReAdvisory senior vice president, who holds a doctorate in meteorology, said that while the season is expected to be above average, it is impossible to predict the possibility of landfalls. “The problem with prediction of storms is that it depends so much on history,” said Mr. Smith.

“Hurricanes are very random events, but what we're saying is that we're thinking there will be storm formation in the Caribbean Sea and near the Bahamas so landfalls are more likely,” he said.

According to the Carvill study, increased storm activity is indicated by current sea surface temperatures, the presence of the La Ni?a cooling effect and steering currents.

While sea surface temperatures are warmer than those in 2006, they have not reached the heights of the water temperatures in 2005. However, the Gulf of Mexico and near-Bahamian Atlantic sea surfaces have reached temperatures near the levels of the Hurricane Katrina season in 2005, which poses a risk for the US coastline, Carvill's study has found.

According to the report, La Ni?a, a cooling of Pacific waters which facilitates the formation of hurricanes, is anticipated to strengthen, as evidenced in models provided by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

La Ni?a will be a factor in the expected increase of hurricane activity late in the season, said Mr. Smith.

Steering currents will be determined by the destination of the Bermuda High, a high pressure point that forms over the mid-Atlantic, he said.

The Bermuda High, explained Mr. Smith, doesn't move the second half of the season. “Hurricanes can't go through it, so they have to go around it,” he said. In a Bermuda High formed in the east, “the hurricane moves around it nowhere near land. In a Bermuda west, hurricanes move around to land,” said Mr. Smith.

It is too early to tell where the Bermuda High will sit, but its position should be established by late July or early August, according to Carvill.

Special Reports /

Signs Still Point To Big Storm Season

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