Less than two weeks after the official end of the below-average 2006 hurricane season, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a London-based consortium of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting group, is predicting that 2007 will mark a return to high-hurricane activity. The organization's long-range forecast anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. land-falling hurricane activity next season will be 60 percent above the 1950-2006 norm.

According to TSR, it is 76 percent likely that U.S. land-falling hurricane activity in 2007 will be in the top one-third of years, historically. TSR's long-range hurricane prediction includes:

oA 79 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a six percent chance of a below-normal season.

oSixteen tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

oA 76 percent probability of above-normal U.S. land-falling hurricane activity, a 15 percent likelihood of a near-normal season, and only a nine percent chance of a below-normal season.

oFive tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes.

The two main climate factors influencing the TSR hurricane forecast are the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop. TSR said that the former influences the spinning up of storms while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms. TSR anticipates weaker than normal trades and warmer than normal waters in 2007, conditions that favor an above-average hurricane season.

“The 2006 hurricane season is atypical of years since 1950 and should not reflect badly on the general capability of forecasts,” said Mark Saunders, lead scientist for TSR. “The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Ni?o conditions from mid-September. There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before.”

More information on TSR's forecasts is available at www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

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Special Reports /

Active Hurricane Season Predicted for 2007

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