As of yesterday, Tropical Storm Ernesto is located approximately 235 miles south-southeast of Miami in Florida and is sustaining winds of around 45 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and reported by Guy Carpenter. The storm, which strengthened into the season's first hurricane several days ago before weakening back to tropical storm status, is expected to travel in a north-west direction and this motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as the storm strengthens.

Ernesto was in the warm waters off Cuba yesterday and forecasters said the storm could dump up to 10 inches of rain over eastern regions of the country. The NHC also said up to 10 inches of rainfall is expected over parts of eastern and southern Florida and the Florida Keys over the next 24 hours.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush has declared a state of emergency in Florida and reports said that tourists have been ordered to leave Florida Keys and mobile home residents in the island chain were urged to evacuate. The storm also prompted NASA to postpone a space shuttle launch that was set for Tuesday and the Florida ports of Miami and Fort Lauderdale were shut.

The NHC said Ernesto is expected to make landfall near Miami on Tuesday or Wednesday as a tropical storm with winds of around 70 miles per hour. However, the NHC has warned that the storm has the potential to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Florida. The long-term forecast for Ernesto, subject to wide margins of error, has the storm tracking through southern and central Florida before moving back out to the Atlantic and making a second landfall in the US later in the week, possibly along the coast of South Carolina.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Associated Press, Reuters News, BBC News, CNN News, Agence France Presse

This report was reprinted with permission. For more CAT-i reports and further information on the service, please click http://www.guycarp.com.

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